Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-12-10 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

PIT: 59.9%

BUF: 40.1%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.22

BUF: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 52%

PIT

C. DeSmith

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	C. DeSmith	38	37	1	97.4%	3.33	0	2.33
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	31	28	3	90.3%	3.49	2	0.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs BUF: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	PIT 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	PIT
2026-02-05	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-26	PIT 4 - 2 BUF	PIT	PIT
2025-03-27	BUF 7 - 3 PIT	BUF	PIT
2025-01-17	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	19	0	1.42
1	BUF	12	0	1.13
2	PIT	15	0	0.90
2	BUF	19	0	0.98
3	PIT	12	2	1.17
3	BUF	22	0	1.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0