Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-12-10 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 4 Calgary Flames (OT)

Win Probability

TOR: 61.8%

CGY: 38.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.02

CGY: 2.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 41%

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Matt Murray	26	22	4	84.6%	1.69	0	-2.31
CGY	Dan Vladar	34	29	5	85.3%	3.69	2	-1.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • TOR at home vs CGY: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	CGY 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-10-28	TOR 4 - 3 CGY	TOR	TOR
2025-03-17	TOR 6 - 2 CGY	TOR	TOR
2025-02-04	CGY 3 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-01-18	CGY 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	11	1	1.13
1	CGY	6	0	0.44
2	TOR	13	0	0.85
2	CGY	16	0	0.64
3	TOR	18	1	1.40
3	CGY	10	0	0.61
4	TOR	3	0	0.31
4	CGY	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 4 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.0 - 2.2