Colorado Avalanche at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2022-12-11 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 52.7%

COL: 47.3%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.32

COL: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

COL

P. Francouz

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	31	28	3	90.3%	2.48	2	-0.52
COL	P. Francouz	32	30	2	93.8%	1.81	0	-0.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • STL at home vs COL: 2-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	STL 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-05	COL 2 - 3 STL	STL	COL
2025-12-31	COL 6 - 1 STL	COL	COL
2025-04-05	STL 5 - 4 COL	STL	COL
2025-03-29	COL 1 - 2 STL	STL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	14	0	0.63
1	COL	15	1	1.03
2	STL	14	0	0.43
2	COL	11	0	0.66
3	STL	14	0	0.75
3	COL	11	1	0.72
4	STL	0	0	0.00
4	COL	2	0	0.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9