Calgary Flames at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-12-12 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 1 Calgary Flames (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 48.0%

CGY: 52.0%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.89

CGY: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

MTL

J. Allen

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	37	35	2	94.6%	3.41	2	1.41
CGY	J. Markstrom	40	37	3	92.5%	6.80	5	3.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • MTL at home vs CGY: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	MTL 4 - 1 CGY	MTL	MTL
2025-10-22	CGY 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-03-08	CGY 1 - 0 MTL	CGY	CGY
2024-11-05	MTL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	CGY
2024-03-16	CGY 5 - 2 MTL	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	17	2	1.73
1	CGY	14	0	0.44
2	MTL	12	1	1.30
2	CGY	20	1	1.36
3	MTL	14	0	0.84
3	CGY	12	0	0.60
4	MTL	11	0	0.97
4	CGY	0	0	0.00
5	MTL	3	2	1.95
5	CGY	3	1	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 1 Calgary Flames

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4