Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-12-12 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 1 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

PIT: 57.5%

DAL: 42.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.13

DAL: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 52%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	27	26	1	96.3%	1.74	0	0.74
DAL	Jake Oettinger	25	23	2	92.0%	1.72	0	-0.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PIT at home vs DAL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	PIT 3 - 6 DAL	DAL	PIT
2025-12-07	DAL 3 - 2 PIT	DAL	DAL
2025-04-05	DAL 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	DAL
2024-11-11	PIT 1 - 7 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-03-22	DAL 4 - 2 PIT	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	PIT	12	0.70
1	DAL	15	0.44
2	PIT	12	0.36
2	DAL	9	0.65
3	PIT	8	0.66
3	DAL	11	0.65

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 1 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8