Dallas Stars at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions
2022-12-13 • Prudential Center
New Jersey Devils 1 - 4 Dallas Stars
🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NJD: 62.0%
DAL: 38.0%
Expected Goals
NJD: 3.58
DAL: 2.78
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NJD
A. Schmid
DAL
S. Wedgewood
| Stat | NJD | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | A. Schmid | 32 | 28 | 4 | 87.5% | 3.84 | 3 | -0.16 |
| DAL | S. Wedgewood | 36 | 35 | 1 | 97.2% | 2.60 | 2 | 1.60 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 10% • NJD at home vs DAL: 0-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | DAL 4 - 6 NJD | NJD | DAL |
| 2025-12-03 | NJD 0 - 3 DAL | DAL | NJD |
| 2025-03-04 | DAL 4 - 3 NJD | DAL | NJD |
| 2025-02-22 | NJD 2 - 4 DAL | DAL | NJD |
| 2024-03-14 | DAL 2 - 6 NJD | NJD | DAL |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJD | 8 | 0 | 0.19 |
| 1 | DAL | 9 | 0 | 0.42 |
| 2 | NJD | 22 | 1 | 1.08 |
| 2 | DAL | 19 | 0 | 1.02 |
| 3 | NJD | 20 | 1 | 1.33 |
| 3 | DAL | 15 | 3 | 2.40 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 62.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
New Jersey Devils 1 - 4 Dallas Stars
Expected: 3.6 - 2.8
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