New York Islanders at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2022-12-13 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 4 - 3 New York Islanders (SO)

Win Probability

BOS: 56.6%

NYI: 43.4%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.04

NYI: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

BOS

L. Ullmark

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	L. Ullmark	27	23	4	85.2%	3.28	1	-0.72
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	36	31	5	86.1%	4.59	2	-0.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • BOS at home vs NYI: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	NYI 1 - 3 BOS	BOS	NYI
2025-11-04	NYI 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	NYI
2025-10-28	BOS 5 - 2 NYI	BOS	NYI
2025-02-27	BOS 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-01-05	BOS 4 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	12	0	0.71
1	NYI	14	0	1.10
2	BOS	11	0	0.86
2	NYI	10	0	0.60
3	BOS	15	0	0.61
3	NYI	12	0	0.44
4	BOS	6	0	0.62
4	NYI	2	0	0.18
5	BOS	3	2	1.79
5	NYI	3	1	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 4 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2