Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2022-12-13 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 5 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 52.8%

VGK: 47.2%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.28

VGK: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	33	27	6	81.8%	3.65	3	-2.35
VGK	Adin Hill	34	29	5	85.3%	2.96	0	-2.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WPG at home vs VGK: 3-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	VGK 6 - 2 WPG	VGK	VGK
2026-03-24	WPG 4 - 1 VGK	WPG	VGK
2026-01-06	WPG 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-03	VGK 0 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-12-12	WPG 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	12	0	0.73
1	VGK	17	1	1.12
2	WPG	16	0	0.91
2	VGK	12	0	0.60
3	WPG	22	0	1.33
3	VGK	13	2	1.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 5 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2