Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-12-14 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

OTT: 55.7%

MTL: 44.3%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.42

MTL: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

OTT

C. Talbot

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	C. Talbot	25	23	2	92.0%	3.34	3	1.34
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	31	28	3	90.3%	3.55	2	0.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • OTT at home vs MTL: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-11	OTT 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	OTT
2026-01-17	OTT 5 - 6 MTL	MTL	OTT
2025-12-02	MTL 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-01	MTL 4 - 3 OTT	MTL	MTL
2025-04-11	OTT 5 - 2 MTL	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	11	0	0.62
1	MTL	13	2	1.24
2	OTT	21	1	1.95
2	MTL	6	0	0.38
3	OTT	10	1	0.98
3	MTL	16	1	1.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.4 - 3.2