Vancouver Canucks at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-12-14 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Vancouver Canucks (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 54.7%

VAN: 45.3%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.39

VAN: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

CGY

J. Markstrom

VAN

S. Martin

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	28	24	4	85.7%	4.97	2	0.97
VAN	S. Martin	38	35	3	92.1%	3.70	0	0.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 74% • CGY at home vs VAN: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	CGY 7 - 3 VAN	CGY	CGY
2025-11-23	VAN 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2025-10-09	VAN 5 - 1 CGY	VAN	VAN
2025-03-12	CGY 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	CGY
2024-12-31	CGY 3 - 1 VAN	CGY	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	21	0	1.58
1	VAN	13	0	1.37
2	CGY	16	0	1.14
2	VAN	16	1	1.37
3	CGY	13	0	0.57
3	VAN	5	0	0.59
4	CGY	3	0	0.27
4	VAN	7	0	0.71
5	CGY	3	0	0.14
5	VAN	1	1	0.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8