Columbus Blue Jackets at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-12-15 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Columbus Blue Jackets

Win Probability

TBL: 63.0%

CBJ: 37.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.81

CBJ: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 50%

TBL

B. Elliott

CBJ

Daniil Tarasov - 8-11-3 | 0.908 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	B. Elliott	25	24	1	96.0%	1.55	1	0.55
CBJ	Daniil Tarasov	29	25	4	86.2%	3.86	2	-0.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • TBL at home vs CBJ: 6-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	TBL 2 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	TBL
2026-01-24	CBJ 8 - 5 TBL	CBJ	CBJ
2025-10-18	CBJ 3 - 2 TBL	CBJ	CBJ
2025-03-04	TBL 6 - 2 CBJ	TBL	TBL
2024-12-17	TBL 5 - 3 CBJ	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	18	0	1.13
1	CBJ	9	1	0.43
2	TBL	15	0	1.30
2	CBJ	14	0	0.57
3	TBL	10	2	1.43
3	CBJ	13	0	0.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.8 - 2.8