Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-12-15 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 2 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 54.4%

DAL: 45.6%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.07

DAL: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	26	24	2	92.3%	2.81	2	0.81
DAL	Jake Oettinger	46	45	1	97.8%	2.81	0	1.81

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WSH at home vs DAL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	WSH 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	WSH
2025-10-28	DAL 1 - 0 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-12-16	DAL 3 - 1 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-10-17	WSH 3 - 2 DAL	WSH	WSH
2024-01-27	DAL 5 - 4 WSH	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	19	0	0.91
1	DAL	18	0	1.21
2	WSH	21	0	0.89
2	DAL	8	0	0.34
3	WSH	19	0	1.00
3	DAL	13	2	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0