Philadelphia Flyers at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2022-12-15 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 62.7%

PHI: 37.3%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.31

PHI: 1.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 43%

NJD

V. Vanecek

PHI

C. Hart

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	V. Vanecek	24	22	2	91.7%	1.97	1	-0.03
PHI	C. Hart	49	48	1	98.0%	3.85	3	2.85

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NJD at home vs PHI: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	NJD 1 - 5 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-11-29	NJD 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	NJD
2025-11-22	PHI 6 - 3 NJD	PHI	PHI
2025-03-09	PHI 1 - 3 NJD	NJD	PHI
2025-01-29	NJD 5 - 0 PHI	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	20	2	1.19
1	PHI	11	0	0.38
2	NJD	17	1	1.40
2	PHI	12	1	0.82
3	NJD	22	0	1.26
3	PHI	10	0	0.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.1

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.3 - 1.8