Pittsburgh Penguins at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2022-12-15 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 2 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 55.7%

PIT: 44.3%

Expected Goals

FLA: 2.95

PIT: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 52%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	39	35	4	89.7%	3.69	1	-0.31
PIT	Tristan Jarry	34	32	2	94.1%	3.03	0	1.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • FLA at home vs PIT: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	PIT 5 - 2 FLA	PIT	PIT
2026-04-04	PIT 9 - 4 FLA	PIT	PIT
2025-10-23	FLA 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	FLA
2025-03-23	FLA 4 - 3 PIT	FLA	FLA
2025-01-03	FLA 3 - 2 PIT	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	16	0	0.98
1	PIT	17	0	0.93
2	FLA	21	0	1.28
2	PIT	17	0	1.06
3	FLA	11	0	0.78
3	PIT	20	1	1.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 2 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0