Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2022-12-15 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 3 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

NYR: 50.0%

TOR: 50.0%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.78

TOR: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 49%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	23	22	1	95.7%	2.94	1	1.94
TOR	Matt Murray	20	17	3	85.0%	2.34	2	-0.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • NYR at home vs TOR: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-25	TOR 4 - 3 NYR	TOR	NYR
2026-03-05	NYR 6 - 2 TOR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-16	TOR 2 - 1 NYR	TOR	NYR
2025-03-20	NYR 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	NYR
2025-02-28	NYR 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	12	0	0.48
1	TOR	13	1	1.13
2	NYR	9	0	0.60
2	TOR	15	0	1.18
3	NYR	9	2	1.26
3	TOR	12	0	0.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 3 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.8 - 2.9