St. Louis Blues at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2022-12-15 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 St. Louis Blues (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 53.3%

STL: 46.7%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.14

STL: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 54%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	34	30	4	88.2%	5.74	7	1.74
STL	Jordan Binnington	29	26	3	89.7%	4.87	3	1.87

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • EDM at home vs STL: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-13	STL 3 - 2 EDM	STL	STL
2026-01-18	EDM 5 - 0 STL	EDM	EDM
2025-11-03	STL 3 - 2 EDM	STL	EDM
2025-04-09	EDM 4 - 3 STL	EDM	EDM
2025-02-04	STL 2 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	16	0	1.27
1	STL	8	0	0.46
2	EDM	12	1	1.12
2	STL	17	4	2.43
3	EDM	17	2	2.04
3	STL	15	1	1.17
4	EDM	3	0	0.22
4	STL	4	1	0.66
5	EDM	3	0	0.22
5	STL	2	1	1.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1