St. Louis Blues at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-12-16 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 5 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 64.3%

STL: 35.7%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.88

STL: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

CGY

J. Markstrom

STL

T. Greiss

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	24	19	5	79.2%	2.52	1	-2.48
STL	T. Greiss	43	41	2	95.3%	3.45	1	1.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • CGY at home vs STL: 2-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	CGY 2 - 1 STL	CGY	STL
2025-11-11	STL 3 - 2 CGY	STL	STL
2025-10-11	CGY 2 - 4 STL	STL	STL
2025-01-16	STL 4 - 1 CGY	STL	CGY
2025-01-14	STL 2 - 1 CGY	STL	STL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	21	1	1.02
1	STL	16	1	1.42
2	CGY	20	0	1.42
2	STL	6	0	0.41
3	CGY	21	0	1.00
3	STL	10	0	0.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 2 - 5 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.9 - 3.0