Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-12-17 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 47.6%

TOR: 52.4%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.00

TOR: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

TOR

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	36	34	2	94.4%	4.09	1	2.09
TOR	I. Samsonov	28	23	5	82.1%	2.66	0	-2.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • WSH at home vs TOR: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	TOR 0 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-18	WSH 4 - 0 TOR	WSH	WSH
2025-11-28	WSH 4 - 2 TOR	WSH	WSH
2024-12-28	TOR 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-06	TOR 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	18	0	1.29
1	TOR	20	0	1.08
2	WSH	7	0	0.85
2	TOR	19	1	1.95
3	WSH	9	0	0.52
3	TOR	17	0	1.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2