Calgary Flames at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions
2022-12-18 • SAP Center at San Jose
San Jose Sharks 2 - 5 Calgary Flames
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
SJS: 43.3%
CGY: 56.7%
Expected Goals
SJS: 2.81
CGY: 2.99
Total Goals
Median: 6.1
Over 5.5: 64%
Over 6.5: 47%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
SJS
K. Kahkonen
CGY
J. Markstrom
| Stat | SJS | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | K. Kahkonen | 25 | 20 | 5 | 80.0% | 3.27 | 1 | -1.73 |
| CGY | J. Markstrom | 26 | 24 | 2 | 92.3% | 2.50 | 2 | 0.50 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • SJS at home vs CGY: 2-7
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | SJS 1 - 4 CGY | CGY | SJS |
| 2026-01-31 | CGY 3 - 2 SJS | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-12-16 | SJS 6 - 3 CGY | SJS | CGY |
| 2025-11-13 | CGY 2 - 0 SJS | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-04-13 | CGY 5 - 2 SJS | CGY | CGY |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SJS | 6 | 0 | 0.30 |
| 1 | CGY | 16 | 0 | 1.36 |
| 2 | SJS | 16 | 0 | 0.98 |
| 2 | CGY | 11 | 0 | 0.59 |
| 3 | SJS | 13 | 2 | 1.22 |
| 3 | CGY | 14 | 1 | 1.32 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 56.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
San Jose Sharks 2 - 5 Calgary Flames
Expected: 2.8 - 3.0
Get NHL forecasts in your inbox
Occasional emails with NHL forecasts, analysis, and model updates.