Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2022-12-19 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 54.5%

BUF: 45.5%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.38

BUF: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	18	15	3	83.3%	2.77	4	-0.23
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	43	41	2	95.3%	4.60	2	2.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • VGK at home vs BUF: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	VGK 0 - 2 BUF	BUF	VGK
2026-03-03	BUF 3 - 2 VGK	BUF	VGK
2025-03-15	BUF 4 - 3 VGK	BUF	VGK
2025-01-04	VGK 3 - 1 BUF	VGK	VGK
2024-03-02	BUF 7 - 2 VGK	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	14	1	1.15
1	BUF	9	0	0.29
2	VGK	14	1	1.01
2	BUF	13	0	0.68
3	VGK	29	0	2.44
3	BUF	14	4	1.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0