New York Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-12-20 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 New York Rangers

Win Probability

PIT: 51.5%

NYR: 48.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.10

NYR: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	28	26	2	92.9%	2.72	1	0.72
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	24	21	3	87.5%	2.17	1	-0.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • PIT at home vs NYR: 6-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	7	0	0.21
1	NYR	14	0	0.77
2	PIT	16	0	1.24
2	NYR	14	0	0.94
3	PIT	8	1	0.72
3	NYR	14	1	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0