Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2022-12-21 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 7 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

DET: 50.7%

TBL: 49.3%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.99

TBL: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 53%

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

TBL

B. Elliott

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Ville Husso	38	34	4	89.5%	3.17	2	-0.83
TBL	B. Elliott	31	24	7	77.4%	3.55	2	-3.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • DET at home vs TBL: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	DET
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	20	0	1.52
1	TBL	18	1	1.30
2	DET	8	0	0.18
2	TBL	16	0	1.08
3	DET	8	2	1.85
3	TBL	10	1	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 7 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3