Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-12-21 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 6 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

DAL: 45.9%

EDM: 54.1%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.22

EDM: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 53%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	34	28	6	82.4%	3.31	4	-2.69
EDM	Stuart Skinner	27	24	3	88.9%	3.14	2	0.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • DAL at home vs EDM: 8-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	DAL 7 - 2 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-11-25	EDM 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	EDM
2025-11-04	DAL 4 - 3 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-05-29	DAL 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-05-27	EDM 4 - 1 DAL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	15	1	0.76
1	EDM	19	1	0.85
2	DAL	18	1	1.86
2	EDM	18	2	1.33
3	DAL	8	0	0.52
3	EDM	9	1	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 6 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.3