Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2023-03-04 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 48.6%

TBL: 51.4%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.04

TBL: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 53%

BUF

E. Comrie

TBL

B. Elliott

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	E. Comrie	36	33	3	91.7%	3.11	1	0.11
TBL	B. Elliott	34	29	5	85.3%	3.34	2	-1.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BUF at home vs TBL: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	16	0	0.87
1	TBL	20	1	1.21
2	BUF	21	2	1.87
2	TBL	10	0	0.81
3	BUF	9	0	0.60
3	TBL	19	0	1.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3