Florida Panthers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2022-12-23 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 5 - 1 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (65% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 35.0%

FLA: 65.0%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.20

FLA: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	23	22	1	95.7%	1.94	1	0.94
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	43	38	5	88.4%	4.91	2	-0.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYI at home vs FLA: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	NYI 5 - 2 FLA	NYI	FLA
2026-03-01	NYI 5 - 4 FLA	NYI	FLA
2025-12-07	FLA 4 - 1 NYI	FLA	FLA
2025-03-16	NYI 4 - 2 FLA	NYI	NYI
2025-02-02	FLA 6 - 3 NYI	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	20	1	1.51
1	FLA	10	0	0.42
2	NYI	21	0	1.50
2	FLA	10	1	0.89
3	NYI	20	1	1.89
3	FLA	12	0	0.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 5 - 1 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.4