Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2022-12-27 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 5 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 45.2%

PIT: 54.8%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.94

PIT: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	21	20	1	95.2%	1.07	0	0.07
PIT	Tristan Jarry	42	37	5	88.1%	4.11	2	-0.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • NYI at home vs PIT: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	NYI 3 - 8 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-02-03	NYI 5 - 4 PIT	NYI	PIT
2025-10-09	PIT 4 - 3 NYI	PIT	PIT
2025-03-18	PIT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	PIT
2024-12-29	PIT 3 - 2 NYI	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	23	0	1.31
1	PIT	13	0	0.26
2	NYI	26	2	1.86
2	PIT	10	0	0.29
3	NYI	13	0	0.94
3	PIT	9	0	0.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 5 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2