Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-12-27 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 52.3%

EDM: 47.7%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.11

EDM: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

CGY

J. Markstrom

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	22	20	2	90.9%	1.99	0	-0.01
EDM	Stuart Skinner	47	46	1	97.9%	4.35	1	3.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 39% • CGY at home vs EDM: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	CGY
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	EDM
2025-03-29	EDM 3 - 2 CGY	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	18	0	0.84
1	EDM	11	0	0.71
2	CGY	17	0	1.51
2	EDM	10	0	0.81
3	CGY	31	1	2.00
3	EDM	5	0	0.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 1 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1