Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2022-12-28 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 2 - 3 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

SEA: 58.4%

CGY: 41.6%

Expected Goals

SEA: 3.07

CGY: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	44	41	3	93.2%	4.37	1	1.37
CGY	Dan Vladar	31	29	2	93.5%	3.14	0	1.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • SEA at home vs CGY: 2-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	SEA 4 - 1 CGY	SEA	SEA
2026-01-05	CGY 1 - 5 SEA	SEA	CGY
2025-12-18	CGY 4 - 2 SEA	CGY	CGY
2025-03-25	CGY 4 - 3 SEA	CGY	SEA
2025-02-08	CGY 2 - 3 SEA	SEA	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	18	0	1.29
1	CGY	21	1	1.45
2	SEA	16	0	1.29
2	CGY	19	0	1.28
3	SEA	11	0	0.56
3	CGY	21	0	1.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Seattle Kraken 2 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9