Detroit Red Wings at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-12-29 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 6 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

BUF: 71.9%

DET: 28.1%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.53

DET: 2.56

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

DET

M. Hellberg

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	31	28	3	90.3%	2.52	1	-0.48
DET	M. Hellberg	35	29	6	82.9%	4.20	3	-1.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • BUF at home vs DET: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-27	BUF 2 - 5 DET	DET	BUF
2025-11-15	DET 4 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-22	BUF 4 - 2 DET	BUF	BUF
2025-03-12	DET 7 - 3 BUF	DET	DET
2024-12-09	BUF 5 - 6 DET	DET	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	18	0	0.97
1	DET	9	1	0.81
2	BUF	14	0	1.42
2	DET	11	0	0.47
3	BUF	13	3	1.80
3	DET	20	0	1.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 71.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 6 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.5 - 2.6