Montreal Canadiens at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2022-12-29 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 7 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

FLA: 76.9%

MTL: 23.1%

Expected Goals

FLA: 4.19

MTL: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	27	25	2	92.6%	1.72	1	-0.28
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	41	34	7	82.9%	5.03	2	-1.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • FLA at home vs MTL: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	MTL 4 - 3 FLA	MTL	FLA
2026-01-08	MTL 6 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-12-30	FLA 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-01	MTL 3 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-03-30	FLA 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	17	0	1.27
1	MTL	18	0	0.73
2	FLA	18	0	1.39
2	MTL	5	0	0.22
3	FLA	17	2	2.38
3	MTL	11	1	0.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 76.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 7 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 4.2 - 2.9