New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-12-29 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 1 New York Rangers (SO)

Win Probability

TBL: 51.7%

NYR: 48.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.80

NYR: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 47%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	51	49	2	96.1%	5.63	2	3.63
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	46	43	3	93.5%	5.46	3	2.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • TBL at home vs NYR: 6-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	TBL
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	19	1	1.23
1	NYR	17	0	1.01
2	TBL	17	0	1.03
2	NYR	26	1	2.17
3	TBL	16	0	1.22
3	NYR	13	0	0.75
4	TBL	4	0	0.09
4	NYR	9	0	0.54
5	TBL	6	2	1.90
5	NYR	6	1	1.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 1 New York Rangers

Expected: 2.8 - 2.9