Los Angeles Kings at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-12-29 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 5 Los Angeles Kings (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 54.0%

LAK: 46.0%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.34

LAK: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

LAK

Pheonix Copley - 0-0-0 | 0.833 SV% | 4.37 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	30	24	6	80.0%	3.46	2	-2.54
LAK	Pheonix Copley	29	25	4	86.2%	2.38	1	-1.62

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • COL at home vs LAK: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-26	LAK 1 - 5 COL	COL	LAK
2026-04-23	LAK 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-21	COL 2 - 1 LAK	COL	COL
2026-04-19	COL 2 - 1 LAK	COL	COL
2026-03-02	LAK 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	10	0	0.29
1	LAK	17	0	0.69
2	COL	15	1	1.32
2	LAK	10	0	0.38
3	COL	10	0	0.56
3	LAK	11	0	0.49
4	COL	1	0	0.12
4	LAK	3	0	0.26
5	COL	2	0	0.09
5	LAK	3	2	1.65

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 5 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0