Toronto Maple Leafs at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2022-12-29 • Mullett Arena

Arizona Coyotes 6 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

ARI: 43.7%

TOR: 56.3%

Expected Goals

ARI: 2.75

TOR: 3.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	K. Vejmelka	32	29	3	90.6%	3.19	0	0.19
TOR	Matt Murray	23	17	6	73.9%	3.34	4	-2.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • ARI at home vs TOR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-02-29	TOR 4 - 2 ARI	TOR	TOR
2024-02-21	ARI 3 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2022-12-29	ARI 6 - 3 TOR	ARI	TOR
2022-10-17	TOR 2 - 4 ARI	ARI	TOR
2022-03-10	TOR 4 - 5 ARI	ARI	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	3	0	0.28
1	TOR	16	0	1.34
2	ARI	12	1	1.12
2	TOR	13	0	1.07
3	ARI	13	3	1.95
3	TOR	14	0	0.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 6 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.8 - 3.8