Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2022-12-31 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 4 Buffalo Sabres (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 58.6%

BUF: 41.4%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.48

BUF: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 45%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	25	21	4	84.0%	2.13	0	-1.87
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	40	37	3	92.5%	4.52	3	1.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs BUF: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	BOS 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-28	BUF 1 - 2 BOS	BOS	BUF
2026-04-26	BOS 1 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-23	BOS 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-21	BUF 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	12	1	1.03
1	BUF	12	0	0.70
2	BOS	13	1	1.11
2	BUF	8	0	0.69
3	BOS	24	1	2.26
3	BUF	9	0	0.60
4	BOS	1	0	0.11
4	BUF	1	0	0.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 3 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9