San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-12-31 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 2 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

DAL: 52.5%

SJS: 47.5%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.24

SJS: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 53%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

SJS

J. Reimer

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	31	29	2	93.5%	3.33	5	1.33
SJS	J. Reimer	31	26	5	83.9%	3.34	1	-1.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • DAL at home vs SJS: 6-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	SJS 5 - 4 DAL	SJS	SJS
2025-12-18	SJS 3 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-05	DAL 4 - 1 SJS	DAL	DAL
2025-02-08	SJS 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-11-20	DAL 5 - 2 SJS	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	11	0	0.55
1	SJS	15	2	1.20
2	DAL	13	0	1.14
2	SJS	12	1	1.07
3	DAL	15	1	1.65
3	SJS	19	2	1.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 5 - 2 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1