Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2023-01-01 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

OTT: 60.0%

BUF: 40.0%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.24

BUF: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 54%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

BUF

C. Anderson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	34	33	1	97.1%	3.52	2	2.52
BUF	C. Anderson	33	30	3	90.9%	3.80	2	0.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • OTT at home vs BUF: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	OTT 4 - 1 BUF	OTT	OTT
2025-12-23	OTT 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-10-15	BUF 8 - 4 OTT	BUF	OTT
2025-04-01	OTT 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-03-25	BUF 3 - 2 OTT	BUF	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	12	0	1.10
1	BUF	17	0	0.93
2	OTT	14	0	0.93
2	BUF	18	1	1.58
3	OTT	17	2	1.77
3	BUF	18	1	1.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9