Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2023-01-02 • Fenway Park

Boston Bruins 2 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

BOS: 56.7%

PIT: 43.3%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.17

PIT: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 50%

BOS

L. Ullmark

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	L. Ullmark	27	26	1	96.3%	2.05	1	1.05
PIT	Tristan Jarry	29	27	2	93.1%	2.53	0	0.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • BOS at home vs PIT: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	PIT 5 - 4 BOS	PIT	PIT
2026-03-03	BOS 2 - 1 PIT	BOS	PIT
2026-01-11	BOS 1 - 0 PIT	BOS	BOS
2025-04-13	PIT 1 - 4 BOS	BOS	PIT
2025-03-01	PIT 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	14	0	0.59
1	PIT	20	0	0.85
2	BOS	12	0	0.69
2	PIT	9	0	0.44
3	BOS	13	0	1.26
3	PIT	12	1	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 2 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0