Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2023-01-02 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 54.9%

VGK: 45.1%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.08

VGK: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

VGK

L. Thompson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	28	25	3	89.3%	3.26	2	0.26
VGK	L. Thompson	29	27	2	93.1%	2.98	0	0.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • COL at home vs VGK: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-26	VGK 2 - 1 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-24	VGK 5 - 3 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-22	COL 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-05-20	COL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-04-11	COL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	14	0	0.92
1	VGK	10	2	1.32
2	COL	11	0	0.92
2	VGK	23	0	1.47
3	COL	15	0	1.14
3	VGK	9	0	0.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0