Philadelphia Flyers at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2023-01-02 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 1 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

ANA: 40.9%

PHI: 59.1%

Expected Goals

ANA: 2.78

PHI: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 52%

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	John Gibson	33	29	4	87.9%	2.35	1	-1.65
PHI	Samuel Ersson	29	28	1	96.6%	3.81	0	2.81

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • ANA at home vs PHI: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	ANA 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	ANA
2026-01-06	PHI 5 - 2 ANA	PHI	PHI
2025-01-11	PHI 6 - 0 ANA	PHI	PHI
2024-12-28	ANA 1 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2023-11-10	ANA 3 - 6 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	15	0	1.28
1	PHI	18	1	1.12
2	ANA	19	0	1.41
2	PHI	11	0	0.47
3	ANA	11	0	1.11
3	PHI	11	0	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 1 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 2.8 - 3.3