Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2023-01-03 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 5 Buffalo Sabres (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 52.8%

BUF: 47.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.53

BUF: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

WSH

D. Kuemper

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	D. Kuemper	29	24	5	82.8%	2.77	1	-2.23
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	32	28	4	87.5%	3.11	1	-0.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • WSH at home vs BUF: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	WSH 6 - 2 BUF	WSH	WSH
2026-03-12	BUF 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	BUF
2025-11-01	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	BUF
2025-03-30	WSH 5 - 8 BUF	BUF	WSH
2025-01-06	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	11	0	0.65
1	BUF	15	0	0.90
2	WSH	20	0	1.31
2	BUF	10	0	0.70
3	WSH	14	1	1.07
3	BUF	11	1	0.95
4	WSH	2	0	0.07
4	BUF	2	0	0.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1