Carolina Hurricanes at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2023-01-03 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 5 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 46.4%

CAR: 53.6%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.26

CAR: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	23	20	3	87.0%	2.32	0	-0.68
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	31	26	5	83.9%	2.96	3	-2.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYR at home vs CAR: 7-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	NYR 0 - 2 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-12-29	CAR 3 - 2 NYR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-26	CAR 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	CAR
2025-11-04	NYR 0 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-04-12	CAR 7 - 3 NYR	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	10	1	0.82
1	CAR	13	0	0.95
2	NYR	15	1	0.90
2	CAR	10	0	0.57
3	NYR	15	1	1.24
3	CAR	9	0	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 5 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2