St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-01-03 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 6 St. Louis Blues (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 63.6%

STL: 36.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 4.02

STL: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 52%

TOR

I. Samsonov

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	36	28	8	77.8%	6.37	4	-1.63
STL	Jordan Binnington	28	21	7	75.0%	5.32	4	-1.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs STL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	STL 5 - 1 TOR	STL	STL
2025-11-18	TOR 3 - 2 STL	TOR	STL
2024-11-02	STL 4 - 2 TOR	STL	TOR
2024-10-24	TOR 1 - 5 STL	STL	TOR
2024-02-19	STL 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	0	0.88
1	STL	12	0	0.86
2	TOR	14	1	0.97
2	STL	17	1	1.66
3	TOR	15	0	1.09
3	STL	7	0	0.29
4	TOR	2	0	0.17
4	STL	6	0	0.70
5	TOR	4	3	2.21
5	STL	4	3	2.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 6 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 4.0 - 3.1