New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2023-01-05 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 4 New York Rangers

Win Probability

MTL: 49.9%

NYR: 50.1%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.93

NYR: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 47%

MTL

J. Allen

NYR

J. Halak

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	31	27	4	87.1%	2.90	2	-1.10
NYR	J. Halak	18	17	1	94.4%	2.25	1	1.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • MTL at home vs NYR: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NYR 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-12-13	NYR 5 - 4 MTL	NYR	NYR
2025-10-18	MTL 3 - 4 NYR	NYR	MTL
2025-01-19	MTL 5 - 4 NYR	MTL	MTL
2024-11-30	NYR 4 - 3 MTL	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	4	0	0.34
1	NYR	7	0	0.36
2	MTL	15	0	0.90
2	NYR	18	1	0.70
3	MTL	13	1	1.01
3	NYR	20	1	1.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 4 New York Rangers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1