St. Louis Blues at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2023-01-05 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 3 - 5 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 52.1%

STL: 47.9%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.89

STL: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 53%

NJD

A. Schmid

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	A. Schmid	19	14	5	73.7%	2.51	1	-2.49
STL	Jordan Binnington	39	36	3	92.3%	4.05	3	1.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NJD at home vs STL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	STL 1 - 3 NJD	NJD	STL
2025-11-26	NJD 3 - 2 STL	NJD	NJD
2024-12-17	STL 1 - 4 NJD	NJD	NJD
2024-11-27	NJD 0 - 3 STL	STL	NJD
2024-03-07	NJD 4 - 1 STL	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	20	3	1.71
1	STL	9	0	0.61
2	NJD	17	0	0.85
2	STL	10	0	0.77
3	NJD	19	0	1.48
3	STL	7	1	1.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 3 - 5 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.9 - 3.1