Washington Capitals at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2023-01-05 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 2 - 6 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

CBJ: 51.6%

WSH: 48.4%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.05

WSH: 3.43

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

WSH

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	37	31	6	83.8%	3.12	1	-2.88
WSH	D. Kuemper	27	25	2	92.6%	2.25	0	0.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • CBJ at home vs WSH: 1-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	CBJ 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	CBJ
2025-12-07	WSH 2 - 0 CBJ	WSH	WSH
2025-11-24	WSH 5 - 1 CBJ	WSH	WSH
2025-10-24	CBJ 1 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-04-13	WSH 1 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	13	0	1.05
1	WSH	18	0	0.82
2	CBJ	11	0	0.57
2	WSH	20	1	1.26
3	CBJ	14	0	0.63
3	WSH	13	0	1.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 2 - 6 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4