New York Islanders at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2023-01-05 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 2 New York Islanders

Win Probability

EDM: 60.1%

NYI: 39.9%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.24

NYI: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

EDM

Jack Campbell - 1-4-0 | 0.873 SV% | 4.50 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Jack Campbell	22	20	2	90.9%	1.21	0	-0.79
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	38	34	4	89.5%	4.82	5	0.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • EDM at home vs NYI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	EDM 0 - 1 NYI	NYI	EDM
2025-10-16	NYI 4 - 2 EDM	NYI	NYI
2025-03-14	NYI 1 - 2 EDM	EDM	NYI
2024-11-12	EDM 4 - 3 NYI	EDM	EDM
2023-12-19	NYI 3 - 1 EDM	NYI	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	27	3	2.77
1	NYI	6	0	0.33
2	EDM	9	1	0.73
2	NYI	12	0	0.59
3	EDM	16	1	1.32
3	NYI	11	0	0.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 2 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9