Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-01-05 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

VGK: 55.1%

PIT: 44.9%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.45

PIT: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	40	38	2	95.0%	2.64	0	0.64
PIT	C. DeSmith	31	26	5	83.9%	2.42	0	-2.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • VGK at home vs PIT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	VGK 6 - 2 PIT	VGK	PIT
2026-03-01	PIT 5 - 0 VGK	PIT	PIT
2025-03-11	PIT 3 - 2 VGK	PIT	VGK
2025-03-07	VGK 4 - 0 PIT	VGK	VGK
2024-01-20	VGK 3 - 2 PIT	VGK	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	VGK	15	1.00
1	PIT	11	0.45
2	VGK	16	0.83
2	PIT	27	1.04
3	VGK	11	0.60
3	PIT	14	1.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0