New York Islanders at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2023-01-06 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 4 - 1 New York Islanders

Win Probability

CGY: 70.2%

NYI: 29.8%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.79

NYI: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

CGY

J. Markstrom

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	25	24	1	96.0%	2.12	1	1.12
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	21	17	4	81.0%	2.04	0	-1.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • CGY at home vs NYI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	NYI 3 - 2 CGY	NYI	CGY
2026-01-17	CGY 4 - 2 NYI	CGY	CGY
2025-03-22	NYI 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	CGY
2024-11-19	CGY 2 - 1 NYI	CGY	CGY
2024-02-10	NYI 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	12	0	0.59
1	NYI	10	0	0.73
2	CGY	13	0	1.02
2	NYI	10	1	0.89
3	CGY	12	0	0.42
3	NYI	9	0	0.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 4 - 1 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.8 - 2.9