San Jose Sharks at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2023-01-06 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 5 - 4 San Jose Sharks (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (68% underdog)

Win Probability

ANA: 32.1%

SJS: 67.9%

Expected Goals

ANA: 2.36

SJS: 4.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

ANA

A. Stolarz

SJS

K. Kahkonen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	A. Stolarz	41	37	4	90.2%	4.89	2	0.89
SJS	K. Kahkonen	29	24	5	82.8%	3.30	1	-1.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • ANA at home vs SJS: 8-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	ANA 6 - 1 SJS	ANA	ANA
2026-04-01	SJS 4 - 3 ANA	SJS	SJS
2025-12-29	ANA 4 - 5 SJS	SJS	ANA
2025-10-11	SJS 6 - 7 ANA	ANA	ANA
2025-04-01	ANA 4 - 3 SJS	ANA	ANA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	20	0	1.25
1	SJS	19	1	2.21
2	ANA	19	1	1.36
2	SJS	23	1	1.77
3	ANA	13	0	0.60
3	SJS	15	0	0.90
4	ANA	1	0	0.09
4	SJS	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 5 - 4 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 2.4 - 4.1