Minnesota Wild at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2023-01-07 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 6 - 5 Minnesota Wild (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 49.5%

MIN: 50.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.06

MIN: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	44	39	5	88.6%	3.73	1	-1.27
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	37	31	6	83.8%	2.68	0	-3.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • BUF at home vs MIN: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	BUF 4 - 5 MIN	MIN	BUF
2025-11-29	MIN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	MIN
2025-03-22	MIN 4 - 1 BUF	MIN	BUF
2024-11-27	BUF 0 - 1 MIN	MIN	MIN
2024-02-17	MIN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	14	0	0.58
1	MIN	11	0	0.52
2	BUF	13	0	0.89
2	MIN	21	1	1.69
3	BUF	17	0	0.74
3	MIN	15	0	1.00
4	BUF	4	0	0.48
4	MIN	6	0	0.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 6 - 5 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2